So baseball season is upon us again. Because I am regarded as something of an expert (God knows why; I’ve always thought “baseball expert” to be something of an oxymoron) by friends and relations, I am always asked at this time of year, “How’s Toronto gonna do?”
Who loves ya, baby?
For the last decade or so, the answer has seemed so obvious, I’ve considered having this T-shirt made to save wear & tear on the ol’ voicebox. For those who had a more thorough grasp of the situation, my answer would be more along the lines of “they’ve made some decent moves in the offseason, and should be good for 85 – 90 wins, but that just ain’t gonna do it in the American League East.”
Which, in turn, brings us to this year. The Red Sox are coming off a gawdawful season in which nothing seemed to go right, the Yankees are aged and injured, and the Orioles seem to have had a bad case of horseshoes last year and are likely to come back to the pack. Only the Rays, with a deep, versatile roster and a manager who is rapidly becoming legend (à la Earl Weaver or Tony LaRussa), seem to have maintained the status quo.
This leaves the Toronto Blue Jays (notice how I never say our Toronto Blue Jays. I don’t work for the team, nor do I own shares in the team. That said, I’m pretty sure my Rogers bundle bill has helped pay for a few free agents in its time).
The Blue Jays have had another offseason where they have made some big, big moves to get star players (C’mon, stop acting like this is the first time since 1993. Remember Roger Clemens? Jose Canseco? A.J. Burnett? B.J. Ryan? Frank Thomas?), and would seem to be legitimate contenders in what may no longer be baseball’s toughest division.
How do we explain Rogers’ sudden magnaminity in 2013? Changes in the way baseball shares revenue between teams, primarily. In the past, Major League Baseball has been accused of subsidizing teams that were doing little to improve their on-field product and, regardless of the veracity of that opinion, new rules were quietly put in place to change those optics.
Toronto is, according to MLB, a “have” franchise; in fact, it’s the fourth-largest single-team market in the Major Leagues. To quote from the above Fangraphs article, “Beginning in 2013, big-market teams will forfeit an increasing percentage of revenue-sharing proceeds. The forfeited funds will be shared among the high-performing teams, in proportion to their Performance Factors.” So, in simpler terms, for large-market clubs, “losing now costs you money”.
Will it all work out for Toronto? Well, first and foremost, it took major cajones on both sides of the table to make those deals. Toronto didn’t rob anyone; they gave up stud prospects to get the players they did. Roll the clock back to 1987; Detroit trading John Smoltz for 11 starts of Doyle Alexander looked good at the time, but how did it work out, on balance? You just don’t know. Alex Anthopoulos’ legacy is, to this point, the guy who was never afraid to roll the dice. Those were the best deals to be made, and he made them, no regrets.
Jose Reyes is the guy I look forward to seeing most. However, he’s been sidelined 11 times in his career with hamstring problems. He played 160 games last year, but it’s been suggested his defense seemed to regress somewhat, and this year will be the first time he’s had to play 81 home games on turf.
What about the other teams in the division? I’m sorry, the Rays are still the class of the bunch. The Rod Sox can’t possibly be worse, but they are using Mike Napoli as a first baseman, who the Jays had in the 2011-12 offseason, and never once considered as a replacement for Adam Lind. The Orioles are going to have to, I think, relinquish their glass slipper to one of the ugly stepsisters, but they do have arguably the best player in the division (Adam Jones) and a serious Rookie of the Year prospect (Dylan Bundy). The Yankees are, well the Yankees. You can never bet against them doing something special, even if they just tread water until they get everyone back. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with A-Rod; there will be enormous pressure on him to retire the whole time he’s rehabbing, to relieve the Yankees of some of the US$114 million (!) they still owe him over the next five years.
And the Jays? Well, we’ll just have to see. But I’m not having that t-shirt printed this year.
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